We take on the economic outlook for 2014, the new year ahead. We’ll look at what’s working, what’s not and what’s coming for the U.S. economy.
Every New Year for years, it’s been the same. This year will be the year the US economy finally takes off, we’ve heard. And then it hasn’t. Now it’s 2014’s turn. Happy New Year! This could be it. And this time, the economic seers say they really, really mean it. Not boom times, they say. But strong growth on the way that should feel distinctly different. And better. We’ve shaken off debt. We’re an energy powerhouse. Washington’s chilling out. Good times, maybe. But for whom? This hour On Point: the economy in 2014.
— Tom Ashbrook
Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics. Author of “Paying the Price: Ending the Great Recession and Beginning a New American Century” and “Financial Shock: A 360º Look at the Subprime Mortgage Implosion, and How to Avoid the Next Financial Crisis.” (@dismalscientist)
From Tom’s Reading List
The Guardian: Global economy set to grow faster in 2014, with less risk of sudden shocks — “The threat, for example, of a eurozone implosion, another government shutdown or debt-ceiling fight in the US, a hard landing in China, or a war between Israel and Iran over nuclear proliferation, will be far more subdued. Still, most advanced economies (the US, the eurozone, Japan, the UK, Australia, and Canada) will barely reach potential growth, or will remain below it.”
Moody’s Analytics: U.S. Macro Outlook 2014: A Breakout Year? — “Preconditions are in place for much stronger economic growth in 2014. The path won’t be straight up, and significant hurdles remain, including Congress’ budget battles and the winding down of the Fed’s bond-buying program. But the U.S. economy’s fundamentals are strong.”
Wall Street Journal: Winners of 2013: Boring Investors — “In the best year for U.S. stocks since 1995, the smart way to play the markets has been to follow the dumb money. So-called dumb-money strategies, which involve buying and holding a plain-vanilla portfolio of U.S. stocks, did much better than the more complex approaches employed by hedge funds and other professional investors.”